July 5: 49 and 33

The (Padres) have now played 82 games. If they duplicate their record in the second half then they will have 97 wins. One shy of the '98 season.

This is a text message I received this morning from an old friend. As excited as I am at the prospect of having another '98 season (which ended with a trip the World Series) I'm a little less ecstatic about talking about it. You see, in 1998 the Padres weren't as big of a surprise as this year's club. They had recently acquired Kevin Brown from the Marlins who would be the ace of the pitching staff. Tony Gwynn was coming off another batting title season to go along with an offense that included Steve Finley, Ken Caminiti, Wally Joyner, and Greg Vaughn. They also had Trevor Hoffman at the back end of a spectacular bullpen. I can't remember if that club was favored to make it as far as they did, but they weren't picked by sports writers all over the country to end at the bottom of the league.

Which brings us to this year's team. The 2010 San Diego Padres were supposed to be last in the National League West and possibly the entire National League. Their only offense was Adrian Gonzalez and their ace was a tall right-hander that spent too much time on the Disabled List by the name of Chris Young. Hoffman departed in '09 and had his shoes nicely filled by closer Heath Bell, but second year closers rarely maintained their first year success.

The offensive predictions were accurate. The Padres are near the bottom of the majors in almost all offensive categories. They have the 26th lowest team average of 30 teams and they have the 25th lowest on base percentage. The only area where they're near the top is stolen bases. After spending most of the first half with the second most stolen bases, they've recently dropped to fifth.

What's keeping the Padres competitive this year is the pitching. Simply put, it's ridiculous. Chris Young pitched six scoreless innings in his first start of the year and has spent the rest of the season on the Disabled List. Other than that, the staff as a whole has the lowest E.R.A. in the majors, the most shutouts, and the most strikeouts. Their bullpen is incredible with the lowest E.R.A. as well. Heath Bell is just as good this year as he was last year and there are at least three other guys in the bullpen that could be successful closers on other teams. The pitching is what's getting it done for the Friars; which scares me the most.

If the Padres got a few runs, the pitching staff has been able to keep the lead. Scores of 1-0 and 2-1 are not uncommon at all. In fact, they have become the norm. The problem with this style of baseball is that three of the five starting pitchers are extremely young; one of which is only 22-years-old. Will these guys be able to continue their dominance for another 80 games and still be able to pitch effectively in the post season? What will pitching this much this early in their careers do to their arms in the long run? At what point will the 22-year-old Mat Latos' arm just give up? Will that shatter his confidence at the big league level?

It's been fun being a Padres fan so far. Nobody expected them to be 16 games over .500 at any point in the season; let alone halfway through. The July 31 trade deadline is fast approaching and there are a few things the Padres need if they want to continue their run. A solid starting pitcher would take a lot of the pressure off of the young staff. A bat to compliment Gonzalez's in the lineup would be great too, but what will this cost the future of the club?

I would love for the Padres to win 97 games. I'm saving all of my money for a trip to San Diego and playoff games in October, but I'm trying not to get my hopes up. I feel like talking about it too much will just jinx the team. The odds are against them and I'm aware of that; which is why I'm hesitant to send text messages like the one I received this morning.